Reconstructing eruptions from historical accounts: Makaturing c. 1765, Philippines

摘要: Abstract For some volcanoes, the only evidence for past eruption is provided by historical accounts. When interpreted carefully, these have potential to be a rich source of information, and yet they so far been under-utilised in reconstructing histories. The navigator Thomas Forrest describes large at Makaturing volcano, southern Philippines, approximately 1765 that he considers catalyst local Iranun population transitioning from an agrarian society long-distance piracy slave raiding. Within literature, attributed scale physical impacts around volcano disruptions trading routes livelihoods ultimately changed course southeast Asia's history. However, no such (or impacts) are recognised scientific literature or databases, fieldwork region remains difficult. Here, we reinterpret account multi-disciplinary perspective, with historian volcanologists working together incorporate greatly needed context into identifying credible volcanic processes associated reported activity. We used novel approach reconstruction cross-referencing deposits inferred record stochastic tephra dispersal modelling considered multiple sources characteristics. found Forrest's was best characterised ~VEI 4 between May October, plume heights range 12 16 km. While least one this size required reproduce described record, it may formed part longer sequence multiple, repeated eruptions. In way, could acted as ‘tipping point’ already on verge socio-political economic collapse, disproportionately affecting regions much larger than suggest. There disconnect characteristics recorded accounts those reproduced numerical modelling, which propose alternative interpretations record. Unfortunately, given minimal details available about eruption, discordance unlikely resolved, even when geological studies possible. valuable benefit probabilistic presented here highlights likely direction deposition during future Makaturing, supporting rapid hazard assessment event unrest.