“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?

摘要: The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think understand what it means. This quantitative statement assumed to be unambiguous convey more information than does qualitative like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the expressed as single-event probability, however, not specify class events refers to. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can interpreted by members public in multiple, mutually contradictory ways. To find out whether same about probability evokes various interpretations, randomly surveyed pedestrians five metropolises located countries have had different degrees exposure probabilistic forecasts--Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Milan, New York. They were asked tomorrow" means both multiple-choice free-response format. Only York did majority them supply standard meteorological interpretation, namely, when conditions are today, 3 10 cases will (at least trace of) next day. In each European cities, this alternative was judged appropriate. preferred interpretation Europe tomorrow time," followed "in 30% area." improve risk communication with public, experts need reference class, is, which refers.