Toward more comprehensive environmental impact assessments: interlinked global models of LCIA and IAM applicable to this century

摘要: Despite the long-standing demand for research on dynamic lifecycle assessment (LCA) policymaking, only a few studies have addressed this subject in conjunction with other systems thinking disciplines, such as energy models (ESMs) and integrated (IAMs), which achieved tremendous success assessing climate policies future scenarios. This study explains our methodological advances global application of LCA incorporated IAMs, specifically dose-response functions, models, We investigate impact method based endpoint modeling (LIME), developed under current environmental situation Japan globally, to be consistent compatible IAM, comprises three resource balance simplified model. The IAM endogenously generates most inventories scenarios linked applied LIME. LIME are formulated minimize discounted sum supplying cost resources over their lifecycles (i.e., from development end-of-life) generate time evolutions impacts century scale with/without 2-degree Celsius (2DC) target 100% renewable scenario. Unlike existing LCA+ESM/IAM studies, focus power generation technologies related (in)direct embedded consumption basis, model’s expansion mineral biomass resources, addition energy, has following novel results: (1) 2DC generally lower than those business usual (BAU): temperature sea level rise, natural resource, waste discharge; further, SOx emissions significantly reduced by reducing coal production while increasing forestry. (2) four endpoints minerals, land use, land-use change, exclusion energy-related impacts, larger energy. (3) Finally, ensuring inventory reduction, scenario can reduce overall (by maximum around 20%), except biodiversity resulting forestry meet predetermined targets. mainstream analyses, we incorporate LIME, instead energy- biomass-related change alone; model thus provides comprehensive perspective various basis. weighting process retention enable us easily interpret results. Further, enables further understand assess impacts.