Potential for electric vehicle adoption to mitigate extreme air quality events in China

摘要: Electric vehicle (EV) adoption promises potential air pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction co-benefits. As such, China has aggressively incentivized EV adoption, however much remains unknown with regard to EVs' mitigation potential, including optimal type prioritization, power generation contingencies, effects of Clean Air regulations, the ability EVs reduce acute impacts extreme quality events. Here, we present a suite scenarios chemistry transport model that assess co-benefits during an winter event. We find regardless source, heavy-duty (HDV) electrification consistently improves in terms NO2 fine particulate matter (PM2.5), potentially avoiding 562 deaths due exposure infamous January 2013 pollution episode (~1% total premature mortality). However, HDV does not GHG emissions without enhanced emission-free electricity generation. In contrast, differing emission profiles, light-duty (LDV) reduces (~2 Mt CO2), but results fewer human health improvements (145 avoided deaths). The calculated economic for endpoints CO2 reductions LDV are nearly double those present-day (155M vs. 87M US$), within ~25% when is used them. Overall, only modest benefit ameliorate severe wintertime events, continued sector will have greatest benefits.