Heatwave and elderly mortality: An evaluation of death burden and health costs considering short-term mortality displacement

摘要: Background A heatwave can be a devastating natural disaster to human health, and elderly people are particularly vulnerable. With the continuing rise in earth's surface temperature alongside world's aging population, research on mortality burden of for older population remains relatively sparse. The potential magnitude benefits averting such deaths may considerable. Objectives This paper examined short-term displacement (or “harvesting”) heatwave, characterized heatwave-mortality relationship, estimated death health costs attributable among Australia. Methods We collected daily data aged ≥75 years five largest cities Australia (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth Adelaide), totaling 368,767 different periods between 1988 2011. total 15-tiered definitions, based intensity (95th 99th percentiles distribution) duration (two or more consecutive days), were used quantify effects, using time-series regression random-effects meta-analysis. calculated each city by types heatwave. Potential economic monetary terms also estimated, considering that heat-related avoidable. Results Among Australian we found significant associations deaths, with raised immediately first few days followed lower-than-expected mortality. In general, was associated an average increase 28% (95% confidence interval: 15% 42%), greater increases mostly observed intense heatwaves across multiple megacities. During study period, there dozens hundreds city, equating loss several million dollars every year. Although varied duration, pattern not consistent cities. Conclusions Heatwave caused harvesting effects Australia, contributed substantial amount indirect financial costs. To lessen impacts affected regions, effective early warning systems interventions targeted at could beneficial, both now future.