Accurate prediction of pregnancy viability by means of a simple scoring system

摘要: main results and the role of chance: The final outcome based on a total 1435 participants was an ongoing viable pregnancy in 885 (61.7%) early loss 550 (38.3%) women. scoring system using significant demographic variables alone (maternal age amount bleeding) to predict viability gave AUC 0.724 (95% CI ¼ 0.692–0.756) training set 0.729 0.684–0.774) test set. ultrasound (mean gestation sac diameter, mean yolk diameter presence fetal heart beat) 0.873 0.850– 0.897) 0.900 0.871 –0.928) sets, respectively. together 0.901 0.881–0.920) 0.924 (CI 0.900–0.947) After defining cut-off at which sensitivity is 0.90 set, this model performed with 0.92, specificity 0.73, positive predictive value 84.7% negative 85.4% limitations, reasons for caution: BMI smoking were potential omission data collection might further improve performance if included. A limitation absence information either bleeding or pain 18% Caution should be exercised before implementation prior external validation studies