Analyzing Climate Uncertainty and Risk with an Integrated Assessment Model

摘要: Uncertainty over the consequences of unprecedented global warming is central to environmental insecurity. Global threatens exacerbate all other ecological stresses and menaces human populations economies. Despite scientific efforts, great uncertainties still pervade crucial aspects climate change process its consequences. Yet integrated assessment models widely used analyze policy options, such as Nordhaus DICE model, establish that model outputs are highly sensitive plausible alternative parameter values. This paper further explores by substituting probability distributions for pre-determined values key parameters in model. It then draws randomly from these implement a Monte Carlo analysis outcomes, generating hundreds simulations. An important finding sacrifice world consumption entailed keeping rise temperatures below two degrees centigrade would likely be negligible if emitting countries cooperate adopting efficient mitigation policies. In words, cost insurance against dangerous close zero. Thus, result this suggests science economics agree on level threatening serious damage.