A Method for Projections of the Emergency Department Behaviour by Non-Communicable Diseases From 2019 to 2039

摘要: In this paper, a new method for prediction of future performance and demand on emergency department (ED) in Spain is presented. Increased life expediency population aging Spain, along with their corresponding health conditions such as non-communicable diseases (NCDs), have been suggested to contribute higher demands ED. These lead inferior the cause longer ED length stay (LoS). Prediction quantification behavior is, however, challenging one most complex parts hospitals. Using detailed computational approaches integrated clinical data Spain's years was predicted. First, statistical models were developed predict how age distribution patients change years. Then, an agent-based modeling approach used simulation impacts changes NCDs ED, reflected LoS, between 2019 2039. Results from different projection scenarios indicated that would experience continuous increase total LoS 5.7 million hours 6.2 2039 if same human physical resources, well configuration, are used. The results study can provide care provider quantitative information required staff resources allow policymakers improve modifiable factors contributing