Heterogeneous shedding of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle and its implications for control.

摘要: Identification of the relative importance within- and between- host variability in infectiousness impact these hetero- geneities on transmission dynamics infectious agents can enable efficient targeting control measures. Cattle, a major reservoir for zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli O157, are known to exhibit high degree heterogeneity bacterial shedding densities. By relating count fitting dynamic epidemiological models prevalence data from cross-sectional survey cattle farms Scotland, we identify robust pattern:80% arises 20% most individuals. We examine potential options under range assumptions about infection dynamics. Our results show that within-herd basic reproduction ratio, R0, could be reduced <1 with targeted measures aimed at preventing 5% individuals highest overall infectiousness. Alternatively, interventions such as vaccination or use probiotics aim reduce carriage produce dramatic reductions R0 by concentrations corresponding top few percent observed counts. conclude greater understanding cause lead highly E. O157. core groups super shedder superspreading