Earthquake prediction: a critical review
作者： Robert J. Geller
DOI: 10.1111/J.1365-246X.1997.TB06588.X
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摘要: SUMMARY Earthquake prediction research has been conducted for over 100 years with no obvious successes. Claims of breakthroughs have failed to withstand scrutiny. Extensive searches find reliable precursors. Theoretical work suggests that faulting is a non-linear process which highly sensitive unmeasurably fine details the state Earth in large volume, not just immediate vicinity hypocentre. Any small earthquake thus some probability cascading into event. Reliable issuing alarms imminent earthquakes appears be effectively impossible. Key word: prediction.
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