Spatio-temporal effect of climate change on water balance and interactions between groundwater and surface water in plains

摘要: Abstract The analysis of the impact climate change on water resources in plains requires integral simulation tools that quantify topographic complexity and strong interaction groundwater surface components (GW-SW). objective this study is to implement a coupled hydrological-hydrogeological model under scenarios order spatio-temporal dynamics balance GW-SW interactions for upper creek basin Del Azul, which located center province Buenos Aires. was carried out baseline scenario calibrated validated period 2003–2015 contrasted with two regional CCSM4, RCP (4.5 8.5) simulated 2020–2050. First, annual monthly anomalies precipitation, temperature, runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, recharge, flow, as well discharge, head level reserves are studied. Then were analyzed finally wet dry periods by means standardized precipitation index Simulation results show will significantly alter patterns balance. These showed monthly, seasonal variations. They an increase most towards middle 21st century, except moisture. Regarding interactions, average discharge aquifer stream expected 5% 4.5 while it 24% 8.5. recharge from 12% decrease Concerning SPI related 2020–2050, alternations both time length scenarios, low frequency episodes, but greater severity permanence contrast 8.5 presents less periods, high severity. Climate could mainly through changes leading modify levels cause flow be reversed some sectors increasing or decreasing into stream.