A global assessment of the carbon cycle and temperature responses to major changes in future fire regime

摘要: Changes in the current fire regime would directly affect carbon cycling, land–atmosphere exchanges, and atmospheric composition, could therefore modulate ongoing climate warming. We used a coupled climate–carbon model to quantify effect of major changes non-deforestation fires on global cycle temperature, from 2015 2300. When considering only CO2 emissions, impacts frequency were limited for cycle, almost negligible surface temperature. The net emissions fraction emitted during combustion due vegetation regrowth climate–CO2 feedbacks, albedo increases caused by cover countered increased employing simplified approach based global-mean radiative forcings order estimate impact non-CO2 temperature depended critically uncertain aerosol forcing. Despite this uncertainty, our results overall do not support hypothesis strong positive climate–fire feedback coming centuries.