An improved method for estimating source densities using the temporal distribution of cosmological transients

摘要: It has been shown that the observed temporal distribution of transient events in cosmos can be used to constrain their rate density. Here we show peak flux-observation time relation takes form a power law is invariant luminosity sources, and method greatly improved by invoking reversal invariance cosmological principle. We demonstrate how distributions applying it Swift gamma-ray burst data good agreement with recent estimates source parameters. In addition, intrinsic dependence allows as predictive tool. Within next year observation, find 50% chance obtaining flux greater than GRB 060017—the highest date—and same probability detecting >100 photons s-1 cm-2 within 6 years.