MODELLING STOCK DYNAMICS IN THE SOUTHERN BENGUELA ECOSYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD 1978–2002

摘要: An ecosystem model of the southern Benguela was fitted to available time-series data for period 1978–2002, explore how changes in target fish populations this can be attributed feeding interaction terms and population control patterns, impact fishing, environmental forcing. Fishing patterns were estimated explain only 2–3% variability time-series, whereas an productivity forcing pattern applied phytoplankton explained 4–12% variance represented by sum squares. Model settings describing prey vulnerability their predators could around 40% time-series. Modelled stock dynamics more closely represent observed timeseries when wasp-waist small pelagic is simulated. Overall, simulations suggest that almost half based on a combination patterns. Variation mortalities preferences over time, as well fits relation effort series, are discussed. The study advances with improved parameterization credibility assist approach South African fisheries management. Afr. J. mar. Sci. 26: 179–196