New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model

摘要: There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which called new paradigm. The paradigm sees most everyday scientific as taking place context of uncertainty, inference is from uncertain beliefs not arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test normative standards the using novel probabilized conditional task. Our results indicated that for with at least weak causal connection between antecedent consequent only probability given contributes unique variance to predicting conditional, but conjunction, nor material conditional. Regarding accounts reasoning, found significant evidence participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid sense Adams, 1998) MP inferences, MT inferences. Additionally, inferences lesser degree DA did rate inside coherence intervals defined by mental logic (Pfeifer Kleiter, 2005, 2010) exceed chance levels. contrast accounts, dual-source model (Klauer et al., descriptive model. It posits participants integrate their background knowledge type information primary approaches) subjective conclusion seen warranted based its logical form. Model fits showed model, employed deductive task abstract contents estimate form-based component, provided good account data solely used