The Use of Model Output Statistics (MOS) in Objective Weather Forecasting

摘要: Abstract Model Output Statistics (MOS) is an objective weather forecasting technique which consists of determining a statistical relationship between predictand and variables forecast by numerical model at some projection time(s). It is, in effect, the determination “weather related” statistics model. This technique, together with screening regression, has been applied to prediction surface wind, probability precipitation, maximum temperature, cloud amount, conditional frozen precipitation. Predictors used include observations initial time predictions from Subsynoptic Advection (SAM) Primitive Equation operationally National Weather Service. Verification scores have computed, and, where possible, compared for forecasts other techniques official forecasts. MOS precipi...