Perception of Interannual Covariation and Strategies for Risk Reduction among Mikea of Madagascar : Individual and Social Learning.

摘要: This paper begins with the hypothesis that Mikea, participants in a mixed foraging-fishing-farming-herding economy of southwestern Madagascar, may attempt to reduce interannual variance food supply caused by unpredictable rainfall following simple rule-of-thumb: Practice an even mix activities covary positively and negatively rainfall. Results from historical matrix participatory exercise confirm Mikea perceive foraging farming outcomes or further considers whether learn about covariation through personal observation memory recall (individual learning) socially transmitted ethnotheory (social learning). Dual inheritance theory models Boyd Richerson (1988) predict individual learning is more effective spatially temporally variable environments such as Forest. In contrast, psychological literature suggests individuals judge poorly when past events required, unless they share learned should exist (Nisbett Ross 1980). suggest rely heavily on shared judging covariation, but continually strive improve their judgment observation.