Estimation of uncertainty propagation in flood inundation mapping using a 1‐D hydraulic model

摘要: A need for more accurate flood inundation maps has recently arisen because of the increasing frequency and extremity events. The accuracy is determined by uncertainty propagated from all variables involved in overall process modelling. Despite our advanced understanding progression, it impossible to eliminate constraints involving cost, time, knowledge, technology. Nevertheless, analysis mapping can provide useful information risk management. twin objectives this study were firstly estimate rates key using first-order approximation method secondly evaluate relative sensitivities model Hornberger–Spear–Young (HSY) method. Monte Carlo simulations Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System triangle-based interpolation performed investigate arising discharge, topography, Manning's n East Fork White near Seymour, Indiana, Strouds Creek Orange County, North Carolina. We found that a single variable differently area depending on effects other process. was linearly/nonlinearly corresponding valley shapes reaches. In addition, HSY sensitivity revealed topography Seymour reach discharge be major contributors change area. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.