Populus tremuloides seedling establishment: An underexplored vector for forest type conversion after multiple disturbances

摘要: Abstract Ecosystem resilience to climate change is contingent on post-disturbance plant regeneration. Sparse gymnosperm regeneration has been documented in subalpine forests following recent wildfires and compounded disturbances, both of which are increasing. In the US Intermountain West, this may cause a shift non-forest some areas, but other demonstrate adaptive through increased quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) dominance. However, potential depends ill-defined constraints sexual under current climate. We created an ensemble species distribution models for seedling severe wildfire define establishment. recorded P. locations across post-fire, post-blowdown landscape. used 3 algorithms (Mahalanobis Typicalities, Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network, MaxEnt) create spatial seedlings constraints. Each model performed with high accuracy was incorporated into model, highest overall all models. Populus constrained primarily by proximity unburned forest annual temperature ranges, secondarily light availability, summer precipitation, fire severity. Based predictions validation data, viable throughout 54% post-fire landscape, 97% previously conifer-dominated. Aspen less susceptible many climatically-sensitive disturbances (e.g. fire, beetle outbreak, wind disturbance), thus, expansion represents important adaptation change. Continued landscapes reproduction at level suggested these results would represent confer maintaining cover, also alter future disturbance regimes, biodiversity, ecosystem services.