Post-hurricane Analysis of Citrus Canker II: Predictive Model Estimation of Disease Spread and Area Potentially Impacted by Various Eradication Protocols Following Catastrophic Weather Events

摘要: The impact of 2005 Hurricane Wilma on the dissemination Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri (Xac), cause Asiatic citrus canker (ACC), and subsequent disease development was examined predictions for areas into which Xac likely to have spread from known sources infection were developed. In addition, effect current 579-m (1900-ft) ACC eradication protocol, resulting in removal all "exposed trees" with a radius Xac-infected tree, calculated via GIS analysis expressed as predicted "impacted area." calculations based extension previous published wind-rain index vector (WRIV) model. model consisted incorporation an estimate distance due various combinations wind rain data collected during 2004 hurricane season. An inverse power law function used describe regional dispersal point focus infection. Alternative protocol (distances) evaluated association analyses examine results these by state federal regulatory agencies commercial producer groups evaluate feasibility continued eradication.