Development of a volcanic hazard model for New Zealand: First approaches from the methods of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

摘要: We commence development of a volcanic hazard model for New Zealand by applying the well-established methods probabilistic seismic analysis to volcanoes. As part this work we use seismologically-based develop eruption volume - frequency distributions Okataina and Taupo volcanoes central Volcanic Zone, Zealand. Our procedure is geologic historical record large eruptions (erupted magma volumes ≥ 0.01 cubic km 0.5 Okataina) construct volume-frequency two The show log-log decreasing as function volume, analogous shape earthquake magnitude-frequency constructed from seismicity catalogues. On basis these estimate maximum that are capable producing at probability levels relevance engineers planners. find 0.1 expected with 10% in 50 years, while may not produce level. However, more conservative 2% both (0.5 1 Taupo). study therefore shows significant differences probabilities same physiographic region, highlights importance establishing unique databases all analysis.