Regional distribution of genetically modified organisms (GMOs)—Up-scaling the dispersal and persistence potential of herbicide resistant oilseed rape (Brassisca napus)

摘要: Abstract Most genetically modified (GM) crop plants are designed to be grown on large areas. However, empirical investigations for risk assessment limited in their temporal and spatial extent. In the case of GM it is difficult test relevance anticipated risks same scale as intended use. Processes which assess experimentally include combinatory effects, interactions between different integration levels, persistence, long distance dispersal occurrence rare events. To a extent, possible combine results small scales way that large-scale long-term implications regional can analysed by using modelling extrapolation approaches. It thus indicate some involved not accessible otherwise. this paper we present an methodology comprising several from field size up landscape level. This aimed at analysing release oilseed rape (GM OSR). The approach consisted scheme beginning with analysis generated representative scenarios considering climate OSR cultivation characteristics. For extent fields information was applied individual-based model representing ontogeny, persistence cultivated, volunteers feral rape. final step, simulation were extrapolated region Northern Germany. Here focus level applying set ecological indicators allowed potential These included number distribution flowering dynamics seeds soil seedbank. Specific related seedbank volunteer development. Model emphasise consequences explicit necessity regard high variability GMO admixture. has considered when developing management schemes co-existence. presented here, integrates traits effects GMOs respect dispersal. developed equally applicable other crops, regions agricultural conditions.