Reevaluating Suitability Estimates Based on Dynamics of Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

摘要: Abstract Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development new varieties, irrigation, road networks, as well changing global demand agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent spatial temporal dynamics expansion in the Brazilian state Mato Grosso during 2001–2012. We found that areas recent identified using satellite data were generally designated low moderate rainfed production. Our analysis highlighted abrupt nature boundaries, rather than smooth gradients potential, with little additional beyond extent flattest (0–2% slope). Satellite-based estimates interannual variability existing also provided an alternate means assess suitability. On average, Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) croplands Amazon region northern (74%). Areas more lower established before 2002, providing empirical evidence or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture–soya rotations) lands undergoing transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes large area potentially available (PAC) without further expansion, within limits imposed pest fallow cycles. Using two constraints on future slope restrictions deforestation vegetation, flat legal production Grosso. Dynamics from decade observations indicated narrow ranges criteria, restricting PAC under current policy emphasizing advantages field-scale information utilization.