A short-lived gas shortfall: A review of AEMO's warning of gas-supply 'short falls

摘要: With the publication of 9th March 2017 Gas Statement Opportunities (GSOO), Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) cautioned that within 18 months, “shortfalls” gas supply could lead to shortfalls in electricity generated by burning gas. AEMO suggested solutions potential included construction new pipelines or Coal Seam (CSG) fields.Our report investigates AEMO’s gas-and-electricity-system modelling results as well communications followed. We explore reasonable alternate conclusions can be drawn analysing published inputs, assumptions, and results, contemplating future real-world events.We find although a “gas-price crisis” exists eastern-Australia, gas-supply shortfall is very unlikely occur. Our review finds size forecast small, amounting no more than around 0.2% annual supply. In addition, only eleven days after announcing its supply-gap concerns, essentially closed gap when it published, on website, updated (lower) electricity-demand forecasts therefore less demand for this we also consider alternative shortfalls, there need expand infrastructure.