Modelling-based evaluation of the effect of quarantine control by the Chinese government in the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak
作者： Xinkai Zhou , Zhigui Wu , Ranran Yu , Shanni Cao , Wen Fang
DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.03.20030445
关键词:
摘要: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, which was first identified in Wuhan, China December 2019, has rapidly spread all over and across the world. By end of February 2020, epidemic outside Hubei province been well controlled, yet next wave transmission other countries may have just begun. A retrospective modeling dynamics would provide insights into epidemiological characteristics evaluation effectiveness strict measures that taken by central local governments China. Using a refined susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model new strategy fitting, we were able to estimate parameters dynamic manner. resulting parameter estimation can reflect prevention policy scenarios. Our simulation results with different degrees government control suggest strictly enforced quarantine travel ban significantly decreased otherwise uncontrollable disease. similar should be considered are high risk COVID-19 outbreak.
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