A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of an Oil Price Increase in South Africa

摘要: Following recent international oil price increases, there has been considerable interest in how this external factor can affect the South African economy. This paper reports results from a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of an increase (up to 30 per cent) prices. Background information is provided, which puts magnitude variations historical context. We describe procedure used adjust social accounting matrix (SAM), calibrate model, account explicitly for crude oil. Then, effects are traced through economy, markets, industries factors, households and government. Predictably, shock hurts economy: 20 cent drop GDP 1 cent. It found that major impact be petroleum industry itself, whereas on liquid fuel dependent such as transport not large may supposed. In agriculture, it depreciating currency positive effect, offsetting most negative higher prices, particularly export-oriented areas. long-term scenario, capital skilled labour becomes mobile, suggest reallocation overall advantage