Trophic interactions and abiotic forcing in the aquatic ecosystems : a modeling approach

摘要: Analyses of the effects extreme climate periods have been used as a tool to predict ecosystem functioning and processes in warmer world. The winter half-year 2006/2007 (w06/07) has extremely warm was estimated be half-amillennium event central Europe. Here we analyse consequences w06/07 for temperatures, mixing dynamics, phenologies population developments algae daphnids (thereafter limnology) deep European lake investigate what extent analysis limnology can really predictive regarding future warming. Different approaches were put observations during into context: 1) comparison with long-term data, 2) that preceding year, 3) modelling temperature dynamics using numerical experiments. These analyses revealed Lake Constance indeed very special did not mix below 60m depth throughout winter. Because this, anomalies variables associated strongly behaviour, e.g. Schmidt stability measure phosphorus upward exceeded several standard deviations mean these variables. However, our results suggest this hydrodynamical behaviour only partially due meteorology per se, but depended also on large difference air previous cold which resulted complete considerable cooling water column. Furthermore, demonstrated respect absolute model “w06/07” most likely underestimates increase world one is sufficient rise temperatures up those expected under climate.