Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks

摘要: Achieving the long-term temperature goal of Paris Agreement requires forest-based mitigation. Collective progress towards this will be assessed by Agreement’s Global stocktake. At present, there is a discrepancy about 4 GtCO2 yr−1 in global anthropogenic net land-use emissions between models (reflected IPCC assessment reports) and aggregated national GHG inventories (under UNFCCC). We show that substantial part (about 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1) can explained conceptual differences forest sink estimation, related to representation environmental change impacts areas considered as managed. For more credible tracking collective under stocktake, these need reconciled. implement new method disaggregation land model results allows greater comparability with inventories. This provides deeper understanding model–inventory differences, allowing transparent analysis mitigation facilitating accurate The carbon mainly from estimating sinks. A revised