Applicability of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models across steep environmental gradients.

摘要: Robust ecological forecasting requires accurate predictions of physiological responses to environmental drivers. Energy budget models facilitate this by mechanistically linking biology abiotic drivers, but are usually ground-truthed under relatively stable physical conditions, omitting temporal/spatial variability. Dynamic Budget (DEB) theory is a powerful framework capable individual fitness drivers and we tested its ability accommodate variability examining model across the rocky shore, steep ecotone characterized wide fluctuations in temperature food availability. We parameterized DEB for co-existing mid/high-shore (Mytilus galloprovincialis) mid/low-shore (Perna perna) mussels on south coast South Africa. First, assumed permanently submerged then incorporated metabolic depression low tide using detailed data tidal cycles, body over 12 months at three sites. Models provided good estimates shell length both species gonadosomatic index were consistently lower than observed. Model disagreement could reflect effects details and/or difficulties capturing variability, emphasising need incorporate both. Our approach provides guidelines incorporating long-term change into mechanistic improve predictions.