The potential long-range predictability of precipitation over New Zealand

摘要: It is assumed that the interannual variance of seasonal precipitation totals made up a component reflecting daily weather variations which, as result, unpredictable beyond deterministic predictability limits about 2 weeks. The second any additional is, at least, potentially predictable. first considered noise and estimated using statistical model whose parameters are determined from daily, within season, precipitation. Estimates compared with total where exceeds it concluded there potential for long-range prediction. Results indicate only 30% or less stations Countrywide do not improve situation. Persistence ENSO signal may be able to help realize small fraction 5% variance. Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society