Cost optimal scenarios of a future highly renewable European electricity system: Exploring the influence of weather data, cost parameters and policy constraints

摘要: Abstract Cost optimal scenarios derived from models of a highly renewable electricity system depend on the specific input data, cost assumptions and constraints. Here this influence is studied using techno-economic optimisation model for networked 30 European countries, taking into account capacity investment operation wind, solar, hydroelectricity, natural gas power generation, transmission, different storage options. A considerable robustness total costs to weather data moderate changes in observed. Flat directions landscape around cost-optimal configurations often allow planners choose between technology options without significant increase costs, instance by replacing onshore with offshore wind case public acceptance issues. Exploring range carbon dioxide emission limits shows that transmission expansion, reduction 57% compared 1990 levels already optimal. For stricter limits, generated turbines at first replaced generation increasing capacities. Non-hydro capacities are only built low-emission scenarios, order provide necessary flexibility meet peaks residual load.