Has lung cancer incidence rate reached its peak in China? Secular changes in lung cancer incidence rates based on an urban Chinese population

摘要: Purpose The objective of this study was to describe trends in the incidence rates from primary lung cancer a geographically defined Chinese population. Methods Primary cases (N = 39,731) diagnosed between 1981 and 2000 were identified by Tianjin Cancer Registry. Age-adjusted world standard population age- specific examined both males females. Changes over time also birth cohort. Poisson regression used assess trends. Results Crude age-adjusted period were: 66.2/100,000 45.2/100,000 males; 47.7/100,000 28.2/100,000 females, respectively. Birth cohort significant factor affecting cancer. For those born before year 1930, increased as years advanced; whereas for after age decreased advanced. analyses suggested statistically significantly increasing trend 2000. However, much increase occurred 1990. Unlike many previous findings projections, research suggest rate has stabilized recent years. Conclusion Through most period, While results that may have reached their peaks, ages smoking prevalence remains high, overall burden is expected grow.