Modeling impacts of climate change and grazing effects on plant biomass and soil organic carbon in the Qinghai–Tibetan grasslands

摘要: Abstract. The Qinghai Province supports over 40 % of the human population Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) but occupies about 29 % its land area, and thus it plays an important role in plateau. dominant cover is grassland, which has been severely degraded last decade due to a combination increased activities climate change. Numerous studies indicate that plateau sensitive recent global change, drivers consequences grassland ecosystem change are controversial, especially effects grazing patterns on biomass soil organic carbon (SOC) storage this region. In study, we used DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model two scenarios (representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5 RCP8.5) understand how SOC pools might respond different intensities under future scenarios. More than 1400 sampling points 46 were validate simulated results. above-ground concentrations good agreement with measured data (R2 0.71 0.73 for SOC, respectively). results showed may be major factor leads fluctuations explained 26.4 47.7 % variation, respectively. Meanwhile, intensity 6.4 2.3 % variation project average between 2015 2044 was significantly smaller past 30 years (1985–2014), 191.17 g C m−2, 63.44 g C kg−1 183.62 g C m−2, 63.37 g C kg−1 RCP8.5, RCP8.5 more negative effect compared RCP4.5. Grazing had relationship positive SOC. Compared baseline, changed by 12.56 −0.19 % G0, 7.23 0.23 G−50, −5.17 1.19 % G+50. future, activity management practices should coupled into simulation.