Modelling behavioural and fitness consequences of disturbance for geese along their spring flyway

摘要: For migratory birds the implications of environmental change may be difficult to predict because they use multiple sites during their annual cycle. Moreover, migrants' these interdependent. Along flyway Svalbard pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus population, Norwegian farmers organized scaring minimize grasslands in spring. We assessed consequences this practice for regional site geese along spring migration route. 2. used dynamic programming find sequence decisions that maximizes fitness female migration, assuming impinges on both food-intake rates and predation risk. The parameterization model was based data gathered from individually marked between 1991 2003. 3. effect terms most noticeable regarding rate. Scaring resulted a redistribution flyway. Furthermore, outcomes modelling exercises were highly dependent whether or not omniscient naive: at moderate levels naive predicted succumb. 4. On qualitative basis there good correspondence predictions empirical evidence date. 5. Synthesis applications. Besides highlighting importance learning changing behaviour an adaptive fashion, our exercise indicated potential vulnerability abrupt change. In addition, emphasized interdependence supports necessity integrated management approach. Norway, discussion is ongoing about future conflict [KEYWORDS: ; scaring]