Beyond lucky: measuring and modelling the impact of ‘probability control’ on risky choice

摘要: Managers frequently deal with risk by considering uncertainty as an element of the decision problem over which they can exert control — for example, lobbyists trying to influence regulators or managers mitigate Operational Risks related human processes. This perspective that probabilities uncertain events are at times ‘mutable’ i.e. subject one’s has important and previously under-appreciated role in decision-making under risk. The present research, structured a series three papers, addresses this gap between theory practice on topic ‘control’ from descriptive, theoretical prescriptive perspective. The descriptive paper discusses novel empirical test behavioural effect taking. key finding does not always enhance taking but, instead, moderating attitudes risk, extends insights research. Strong preference exerting eliminate is also revealed. Affective cognitive interpretations findings offered their correspondence managerial discussed. The builds methods Decision Analysis Philosophy, develops new probability revision rule modelling interventions uncertainties. shown dramatically alleviate judgmental burden analysing multiple interventions. Foundational properties rules interventions, similar coherence criterion Bayes rule, constructed proof proposed satisfies these offered. In paper, real world application illustrated context Risk assessment, where several uncertainties controllable (e.g. staff strikes). It how be integrated calculations explicitly incorporate mitigations loss events, thus making useful contribution field. In summary, research explores concept ‘probability control’ way manage risks Sciences. furthers our understanding better resonate perspectives relevance corporate management.