Modelling high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in the commercial poultry industry.

摘要: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are devastating to poultry industries and pose a risk human health. There is concern that demand for free-range products could increase the number of HPAI by increasing potential low (LPAI) introduction commercial flocks. We formulate stochastic mathematical models understand how poultry-housing (barn, caged) within meat layer sectors interacts with continuous low-level from wild birds, heterogeneity in virus transmission rates mutation probabilities, affect emergence - at both shed industry scales. For H5 H7 viruses, restricted mixing caged systems, outdoor access and, particularly, production cycle length significantly influence between chicken industry. Results demonstrate delay detection, ensuing short cycle, large sizes reporting requirements, mean emerges meat-production sheds but undetected few birds affected. also find Australian outbreak history appears be better explained LPAI rather than extremely rare relatively high probabilities.