On the assessment of the impact of reducing parameters and identification of parameter uncertainties for a hydrologic model with applications to ungauged basins

摘要: In this paper, we investigate model parameter uncertainties associated with hydrological process parameterizations and their impacts on simulations in the Three-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model. We introduce an alternative subsurface flow parameterization into VIC-3L to reduce of by reducing number parameters that need be estimated through a calibration process. The new is based concepts kinematic wave hydrologic similarity, has one for calibration. Results from 12 MOPEX (Model Parameter Estimation Experiment) basins obtained applying formulation show performance comparable original formulation, which three addition, probabilistic approach Monte Carlo used evaluate over different ranges streamflow. Studies watersheds compared parameterization, VIC shape (i.e. b represents heterogeneity distribution effective soil moisture capacity study area) larger impact could more uncertainty if not appropriately. Furthermore, investigations suggest ensembles mean response its bounds) provide reasonable predictions estimates streamflows, have important implications applications ungauged basins. also shows appropriate reduction simulations. This so or limited data available analysis are general can applied other modeling studies.