Wildfires in Chernobyl-contaminated forests and risks to the population and the environment: a new nuclear disaster about to happen?

摘要: Abstract Radioactive contamination in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia after the Chernobyl accident left large rural forest areas to their own fate. Forest succession conjunction with lack of management started gradually transforming landscape. During last 28 years dead wood litter have dramatically accumulated these areas, whereas climate change has increased temperature favored drought. The present situation forests suggests an risk wildfires, especially pronounced fires 2010, which remobilized Chernobyl-deposited radioactive materials transporting them thousand kilometers far. For aforementioned reasons, we study consequences different on redistribution 137Cs. Using time frequency that occurred area during three scenarios assuming 10%, 50% 100% are burnt. We aim sensitize scientific community European authorities for foreseen risks from radioactivity over Europe. global model LMDZORINCA reads deposition density radionuclides burnt satellites was used, human animal population were calculated using Linear No-Threshold (LNT) computerized software ERICA Tool, respectively. Depending scenario, between 20 240 humans may suffer solid cancers, 10–170 be fatal. predicts insignificant changes populations fires, already extreme background plays a major role living quality. resulting releases 137Cs hypothetical wildfires Chernobyl's classified as high International Nuclear Events Scale (INES). estimated cancer incidents fatalities expected comparable those predicted Fukushima. This is attributed fact distribution fallout intensely populated Western Europe, Fukushima it towards Pacific Ocean. will exacerbated near not only due refractory (also trapped there), but also nutritional habits local population.