The Banking Exposure to International Lending: Regional Differences or Common Fundamentals?

摘要: The present study unveils the importance of regional characteristics sovereign debt crises in Latin America and South East Asia. It proposes empirically corroborates a refinement logit approach, for assessing risk, which draws upon region-specific parameterization—composite estimator. analysis identifies some common features that largely reflect domestic solvency, liquidity factors and, to lesser extent, trade-balance variables external shocks. Nonetheless, heterogeneity effects signals point towards use models. Such approach depicts specific risk such as openness burden reserves, output government expenditure Asia, thereby suggesting distinctive aspects crises. Out-of-sample forecast comparisons further support composite latter outperforms simple pooled random on basis various criteria, albeit slightly biased false non-crises predictions.