How Uneven Are Changes to Impact‐Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

摘要: In the last decade, climate mitigation policy has galvanized around staying below specified thresholds of global mean temperature, with an understanding that exceeding these may result in dangerous interference system. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change texts have developed which aim is to limit warming well 2 °C above preindustrial levels, additional aspirational target 1.5 °C. However, denoting a specific threshold temperatures as for avoiding damaging impacts implicitly obscures potentially significant regional variations magnitude projected impacts. This study introduces simple framework quantify this heterogeneity changing hazards at 1.5 °C warming, using case studies emergent increases temperature and rainfall extremes. For example, we find up double amount (3.0 °C) needed before people high-income countries experience same relative changes extreme heat low-income nations should anticipate after only warming. By mapping how much one location match fixed another location, “temperature equivalence” index flexible easy-to-understand communication tool, potential inform where targeted support adaptation projects be prioritized world.