摘要: Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature. Judgmental overconfidence leads people (1) to neglect decision aids, (2) make predictions contrary base rate, and (3) succumb “groupthink.” To counteract forecasters should heed six principles: Consider alternatives, especially new situations; List reasons why forecast might be wrong; In group interaction, appoint devil’s advocate; (4) Make an explicit prediction then obtain feedback; (5) Treat feedback you receive as valuable information; (6) When possible, conduct experiments test strategies. These principles can help avoid generating only that bolster their learn optimally by comparing documented with outcome feedback.
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