Chronic wasting disease in mule deer: disease dynamics and control.

摘要: We developed a mechanistic model to simulate dynamics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) populations. The projected age-specific dynamics, changes population size. and effects control strategies. estimated parameters from observations infected uninfected Colorado. used Monte Carlo techniques evaluate likely responses. Simulations CWD epidemics were highly unstable. Disease was not sustained populations when transmission rates low, but eliminated more realistic used. failed produce stable coexistence simulated Even low prevalence reduced potential harvest via combined diminished per-capita production decreased density. Changes with-in sensitive rate, small decreases resulted noticeable damping increases. Simulated selective culling programs revealed the importance initiating while (<0.01). Low (<20% populations) effectively if initiated likelihood rapidly as increased. Management will require an effort over many decades eliminating is desired goal.