Impact of climate change on streamflow in the arid Shiyang River Basin of northwest China

摘要: Climate change may significantly affect the hydrological cycle and water resource management, especially in arid semi-arid regions. In this paper, output from Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model were used conjunction with Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to analyse effects of on streamflow Xiying Zamu rivers Shiyang River basin, an important region northwest China. After SWAT calibration validation, Basin was simulated using PRECIS data greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 (high rate) B2 (low developed by Intergovernmental Panel Change. Monthly extremes compared present-day?years (19611990), 2020s (20112040), 2050s (20412070) 2080s (20712100). The results show that mean monthly generally increased 2020s, between 0.76.1% at gauging station 0.14.8% station. minimum persistently, but maximum streamflows slightly decreased 2080s. This study provides valuable information guiding future management other regions Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.