Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts☆
作者： Patric Andersson , Jan Edman , Mattias Ekman
DOI: 10.1016/J.IJFORECAST.2005.03.004
关键词:
摘要: Abstract This paper investigates the forecasting performance and confidence of experts non-experts. 251 participants with four different levels knowledge soccer (ranging between expertise almost ignorance) took part in a survey predicted outcome first round World Cup 2002. The participating (i.e., sport journalists, fans, coaches) non-experts were found to be equally accurate better than chance. A simple prediction rule that followed world rankings outperformed most participants. Experts overestimated their tended overconfident, while opposite tendency was observed for limited knowledge. Providing information did not improve performance, but increased confidence.
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