Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat

摘要: Precipitation changes projected for the end of twenty-first century show an increase more than 50 per cent in Arctic regions. This marked increase, which is among highest globally, has previously been attributed primarily to enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes. Here we use state-of-the-art global climate models that increases precipitation over century, peak late autumn and winter, are instead due mainly strongly intensified local surface evaporation (maximum winter), only a lesser degree inflow latitudes summer autumn). Moreover, results retreating winter sea ice, signalling amplified hydrological cycle. demonstrates firmly linked warming sea-ice decline. As result, mean sensitivity (4.5 temperature warming) much larger value (1.6 1.9 kelvin). The associated seasonally varying likely river discharge snowfall ice sheets (thereby affecting level), could even affect through freshening Ocean subsequent modulations Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.