Modelling energy technology dynamics: methodology for adaptive expectations models with learning by doing and learning by searching

摘要: This paper presents a module endogenising technical change which is capable of being attached to large scale energy models that follow an adaptive-expectations. The formulation includes, apart from the more classical learning by doing effects, quantitative relationships between technology performance and R&D expenditure. It even attempts go further partially latter incorporating optimisation describing private equipment manufacturers' budget allocation in context risk expectation. Having presented this abstract, proceeds describe how operational version it has been constructed implemented inside large-scale partial equilibrium world model (the POLES model). Concerning functions problems associated with data are alluded to, hybrid econometric methods used estimate them as well adjustments had be effected ensure smooth incorporation into model. In final sections explained use itself generate foresight parameters for determination return expectations particularly view CO2 constraints carbon values.