Fleet view of electrified transportation reveals smaller potential to reduce GHG emissions

摘要: Abstract Plugin and hybrid vehicles have been shown to offer possible reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, depending on grid-carbon-intensity, range thus life-cycle battery emissions vehicle weight, trip patterns. We present a framework that enables GHG comparisons (well-to-wheel plus storage manufacturing) for three drivetrains (pure-electric, gasoline-hybrid, plugin-hybrid), both individual fleets. The captures effects of grid- versus vehicle-based electricity generation, grid transmission charging losses, manufacturing carrying batteries. In contrast previous work, can be obtained heterogeneous fleets varying sizes (cars, vans, buses, trucks) performances, without requiring forecasting such specs their respective market penetrations. Further, we show how novel adaptation the Utility Factor concept from plug-in-hybrids mixed battery-only gasoline-hybrids is crucial quantifying battery-only-vehicles’ impact fleet-wide GHG. To account regional variations future technology improvements, scenarios over wide spectrum grid-carbon-intensities (50–1200 g CO 2 e/kW h at wall), (∼5–500 km), energy densities, Model uncertainties are quantified via sensitivity tests. Applying patterns US passenger transportation, find owing interplay GHG/km, size, all-electric range, patterns, achievable electrified transportation smaller than previously considered (e.g., 55% reduction instead 80%; scenario-dependent), even when assuming largely decarbonized grid-electricity. Optimal achieves lowest partially different plug-in hybrids pure electrics furthermore varies strongly (∼35 ∼200 km) with predominant carbon-intensity grid.