Present day and future scenarios of coastal erosion and flooding processes along the Italian Adriatic coast: the case of Molise region

摘要: Coastal erosion and flooding are the main hazards affecting coastal areas, especially low-lying ones, which particularly prone to damage by storm surges. Due climate change socio-economic development, potential impacts of globally increasing, processes will persist in future when considering sea level rise projections. In this paper, we have applied an index-based methodology for evaluation present-day susceptibility along Italian Adriatic stretch, Molise coast. The indexes that characterize system terms beach dune morphologies, shoreline evolution, wave effect, river features topography, allowed dividing study coast into stretches according their degree susceptibility. To identify hotspot i.e., areas characterized highest risk, exposure been combined. latter evaluated sectors 1 km CRAF 1 phase RISC-KIT index-method, based on indicators referring land use categories, economic activities social vulnerability. Taking consideration IPCC projections, hazard scenarios estimated global 2065 2100 means specific models executed areas. These shown cause strong systems coast, exposing ecological assets serious damage. highlights correct predictions essential assessment long term risk definition related prevention mitigation measures.