Predicting fate from early connectivity in a social network

摘要: In the long-tailed manakin (Chiroxiphia linearis), a long-lived tropical bird, early connectivity within social network predicts male success an average of 4.8 years later. Long-tailed manakins have unusual lek mating system in which pairs unrelated males, at top complex overlapping teams as many 15 cooperate for obligate dual-male song and dance courtship displays. For long 8 before forming stable “alpha–beta” partnerships, males interact with other complex, temporally dynamic networks. “Information centrality” is metric that accounts indirect well shortest (geodesic) paths among interactors. The odds would rise socially rose by factor five each one-unit increase their information centrality. Connectivity destined to did not change over time but increased failed socially. results suggest important young (ages 1–6) less so older high status 10–15) it difficult explain present without reference history.