On the Nature of Expected Utility

摘要: The axioms of von Neumann and Morgenstern for a preference relation ≻ on set P probability distributions consist an ordering axiom, independence Archimedean condition. It is argued that the core their idea captured by parts first two axioms, namely asymmetric, λp + (1– λ)r λq λ)s whenever 0 < λ 1, p q r s.These less demanding overcome criticisms original which pertain to threshold phenomena vagueness in human judgment, they lead lexicographic expected-utility representation retains important aspects used Morgenstern. However, even this drastic weakening theory cannot fully account failures uncovered Allais, nor can it handle phenomenon cyclic preferences has been observed Tversky others.